The four big categories at this year's Oscarsâbest picture, director, actor, and actressâare being deemed too close to call as the remarkable drama of this year's award season reaches a peak.
The Brutalist, Brady Corbet's epic postwar drama about a modernist Hungarian architect in the US, was until recently considered a shoo-in for the top prize.
But two other films have denied it the top prize at subsequent ceremonies, causing its stock to drop rapidly. Earlier this month, Anora, a comedy-drama about a sex worker in Brooklyn who falls for the son of a Russian billionaire, triumphed at three of the four significant guild awards in the USâthose decided by writers, directors, and producers.
This is a significant bellwether. Only one film has ever lost the Oscar after taking all three: Brokeback Mountain, in 2006, which controversially lost to Paul Haggis's Crash. Crash's previous key win had been the ensemble prize at the Screen Actors Guild (Sag) awards.
The equivalent winner at the Sags last weekend was Conclave, Edward Berger's papal thriller adapted from the Robert Harris novel, which was also a surprise best picture winner at the Baftas a fortnight ago.
Despite Anora's apparent edge, pundits are now split between the top trio of titles. All have their passionate champions and vocal detractors, although Conclave is believed to not be quite as ardently adored as the other two, though perhaps the most widely admired. Being enough people's second choice, however, could serve it well given the Academy's preferential choice system.
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